Paul George, 2 first rounders, and 2 second rounders... for JAYLEN BROWN!?!?!?  As a lifelong Boston sports fan who has claimed the Celtics as my number one team since I was in elementary school, I'm floored! But even for the average NBA fan, this trade has to be puzzling.

I know that Brad Stevens has earned a lot of trust in his years with the Celtics. His track record with trades, free agency, and the draft has been for the most part, tremendous. But I've spent the last 90 minutes tearing my hair out (at least what's left of it), trying to make sense of this deal. I also have a lot of Sixers fans in my life, which has not made this evening any easier.  

From Philly's side, this is a no brainer. Adding Brown at small forward to a backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecomb has huge upside. If they get even 35 regular season games and a relatively healthy playoff run from Joel Embiid, the Sixers could win the east, something I have never said or believed since they demanded that fans "trust the process." I seriously doubt that adding Jaylen Brown, fresh off a career year that earned him second team All-NBA recognition (and easily could've been first team), was part of their process. This feels like Stevens uncharacteristically panicking and rushing JB out the door. 

What did Brown do exactly? I know he can be moody. I know he is often outspoken. I know he said publicly that 2025-26 was his favorite year in his still evolving career. And why not?  Wouldn't you enjoy finally being the man on a high-profile team that was hugely successful after sharing the spotlight with a teammate forever? The media has been blowing up the JB versus Jayson Tatum debate for years. I always thought it was mostly nonsense. Having a pair of elite two-way wings is an enviable "problem" that any franchise would welcome. They won a title, reached another NBA finals, and made the conference finals so many times I stopped counting. And they are both still in their prime!  They don't have to be best friends to win a title, which they've proven, as long as there's a healthy respect, which it seems was always present.

It must have been miserable behind the scenes in Boston. But even if it was, what could've possibly been bad enough to excuse trading Brown for THIS PACKAGE?  June was dominated by trade talk revolving around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brown. Boston clearly thought they could get Giannis without giving up their best young assets, but there was a major risk going down this road if they couldn't get a deal done. And once Milwaukee accepted the offer from the Miami Heat (which I was honestly unimpressed with), where did that leave the Celtics?  Clearly, they felt they had to trade Brown. But why this trade? Even as the ESPN talking heads and every NBA YouTuber alive were all throwing out potential Brown trades with New Orleans, Atlanta, Portland, and others, I thought they mostly sounded like nonsense. None of the trades seemed up to par. Sadly, most were better than the one the Celtics just inexplicably accepted.

At the very least, I would've expected Boston to clearly choose to get older OR younger. But trading for George is puzzling. Who wants him exactly?  He's 36, seven years older than Brown, and despite more time in the NBA, has nothing even resembling Brown's playoff success, team or individual. He's past his prime, has lost a step on defense, and makes almost as much as Brown. So, this wasn't exactly a major money-saving trade. Are they going to deal George, Derrick White, and another young player for a more dangerous veteran?  Lebron James recently put himself on the table. We know Kevin Durant is seemingly always on the block. But both those guys have a lot of miles on them, in addition to playing the same position as Jayson Tatum!  So how does this make sense? Could the C's steal Steph Curry now?  At least adding one of these guys would make sense if the goal remains to compete in the East next season.  As for the draft picks, it feels like an inadequate return, especially if Philadelphia is finally a very good-great team through 2031.

This is an awful look for the new Celtics ownership group. It reminds me of something I'd see from the decision-makers at Fenway Park, but never this Celtics team. Speaking of the Red Sox, while I of course hope that I'm wrong, the Jaylen Brown trade has the potential to be the most difficult-to-digest trade since the Sox sent Mookie Betts to Los Angeles years ago for used car parts.

Are the Celtics, as currently constructed, a real threat in the East next year?  I wish I could say yes, but they are now moving on with the same questionable system from coach Joe Mazzula, only with less high-end talent on the floor. Like with Stevens, I have mostly been a supporter of Mazzula the last couple of years. That ended in round one, when Boston inexplicably blew their series against... the Sixers. For so many reasons, I thought Mazzula coached one of the worst series in the NBA during the last 5-6 years. His inability to shift gears, especially on the offensive end, was a major issue. Now, just six weeks later, my confidence in Stevens has become shaken for the first time.

I'm too emotional to be writing at this moment. I love Brown. I love Tatum. I love this Celtic's era. We got to see two young stars develop together, overachieve, underachieve, and all the permutations and supporting players who've come and gone. I can only assume the Celtics believe Tatum is 100% back. And I have always argued that Tatum's upside is higher than Brown's. If I could only keep one of them, I also would've kept Tatum. 

But you know who was fully healthy?  Jaylen Brown.  You know who was the toughest guy on this team?  Jaylen Brown.  You know what kind of player teams are desperately searching for to get to the next level?  Jaylen Brown.

I'm sure that more information will come out in the next week. But it's not hard to assess the mood in Boston right now. In the last three hours, I received 142 text messages from friends and angry Celtics fans. 

For Brad Stevens, all I can really say is I hope you have a plan here. Because if the goal at this point was to simply get Brown out of the locker room, that's not good enough, not by a longshot. It should be an interesting press conference.

Thanks for reading, and for you NBA fans out there, let me know your thoughts. I'll reply to all comments.

Finally, thank you to Jaylen Brown. I hate that you will now be playing for one of Boston's biggest sports rivals. But I have always loved rooting for you. My son has your jersey hanging in his closet. I have no doubt you will continue to improve and expand your game, as you have every single year since entering the NBA. I just wish it was going to be happening 300 miles north.

Zach


P.S. An early tip for all the bettors out there: Once the 2026-27 NBA schedule is released later this summer, circle Philadelphia's first trip to Boston. Jaylen Brown to drop 30+ points in his return to the Garden is a lock (sigh)....






Jaylen Brown to Philly: Entire City of Boston Perplexed

Playoffs?   You kidding me?
- The infamous Jim Mora

Well, we finally reached spring, and you NBA junkies know what that means!  

In this article, I'll be giving out my picks for every playoff matchup. In a follow up, I'll offer my selections for the three All-NBA teams, as well as 10 honorable mentions, and a few thoughts on the NBA regular season.

A quick word about the play-in tournament: Despite my initial reservations, I must admit it's been a rousing success and has added some drama to awarding the final two playoff spots in each conference. We saw phenomenal endings and unexpected heroics from Coby White, Al Horford, Jalen Green, VJ Edgecombe, Desmond Bane, and Draymond Green, who's strip on Kawhi Leonard essentially sealed the win for the Warriors. We also got to see a vintage second half from Steph Curry, who finished with 35 points after a lethargic first half. Please enjoy this guy while you can. He's the most entertaining basketball player we've had since Michael Jordan.

On the flip side, LaMelo Ball continued his run as one of the most polarizing players of his generation, hitting some ridiculous shots against Miami but also tripping Bam Adebayo in an unnecessary move that should've resulted in a suspension. Maybe it was karma that Charlotte got destroyed by Orlando in game 2. The Magic redeemed themselves with a complete beatdown and nobody needed it more than Paolo Banchero, who continues to flirt with superstar status but hasn't quite got there yet (way too many turnovers and poor shot selection). The Phoenix Suns also showed ups and downs in blowing game 1 against Portland, but then knocking out Golden State in game 2, disappointing millions of fans all over the world. 

Finally, we have Tyronn Lue, who, with the likely retirement of Doc Rivers, takes over the title of most overrated coach in the NBA. Seriously, do we have any evidence that he's an effective coach other than the Cleveland title that was essentially orchestrated by prime Lebron James? The Clippers disappoint every single year, despite having plenty of talent. This includes Wednesday's choke job against the Warriors. The same guy who designed the Dwyane Wade statue should concoct a small bronze trophy of Rivers, to pass around annually, that comes with a pull-out chord to shout excuses for playoff failures in a voice that resembles a Muppet with laryngitis. 


Eastern Conference Round 1 Picks:

Detroit over Orlando in 6 games - I considered 5, but this Pistons squad is relatively inexperienced in big games. Cade Cunningham has been awesome, but their offense can really stall when he's not hot. I don't think it matters much against Orlando, which has its own issues generating offense, but keep an eye on this in later rounds. Still, it would be a shocker if Detroit lost.

Boston over Philadelphia in 5 games - Other than the OKC series, this is the most likely sweep of round 1. I know it's a historic rivalry and Philly will certainly be up for this series. But they arguably have a disadvantage at every position on the court, except for Tyrese Maxey, who dominated their play-in win and continues to inch closer to truly elite status. However, I don't see any scenario where they can stop Boston from scoring, either inside or on the perimeter. The Sixers could get game 3 or 4 at home if Maxey goes bonkers, but this should be a quick series whether we see Joel Embiid or not. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have owned Philly their entire careers.  Let's move on.

New York over Atlanta in 7 games - I suspect there's no way the Knicks wanted to see Atlanta in round 1. They are younger, hungry, and more athletic. Jalen Johnson has become a stud, and they have a lot of weapons. I think this series comes down to New York having a potential game 7 at MSG. Jalen Brunson will have a ton on his shoulders this series, but he's still the best shot maker out there. The Knicks will advance, but barely...

Cleveland over Toronto in 7 games - I considered an upset here. On paper, this series shouldn't be close. But Toronto matched up incredibly well with Cleveland during the regular season. Donovan Mitchell is the best closer in this series, but I don't fully trust his two best running mates. Evan Mobley is a good player, but his defensive efforts carry much more weight than his up-and-down scoring and rebounding numbers. And then we have James Harden, who gets his 75th chance to show he can deliver in the playoffs and isn't just a phenomenal regular season pick up player (tbd)...


Western Conference Round 1 Picks:

OKC over Phoenix in 4 games - Phoenix doesn't have the horses to compete in this series. They'll get one explosive game from Jalen Green, one inexplicably good game from Grayson Allen, 4 solid but unexceptional games from Devin Booker, and a lot of barking from instigator Dillon Brooks. OKC has advantages all over the court, and in the coaching department. The Thunder are focused and looking to become the first repeat NBA champs since the Curry/KD led Warriors. They will face obstacles, but not in round 1.

San Antonio over Portland in 5 games - The Blazers compete, and they have a real gamer in Deni Avdija, who dominated the Suns in their play-in victory. But the Spurs look like a potential juggernaut. Victor Wembanyama's biggest test will be staying healthy throughout the playoffs. The Spurs have exceptional guard play, depth, and a ferocious defense led by Wemby and rising superstar, Stephon Castle. I'll give Portland one game at home, and I expect at least one shining moment from veteran Jrue Holiday. 

Denver over Minnesota in 6 games - Crazy how matchups can impact the fortunes of so many this time of year. I would pick either Denver or Minnesota to advance rather easily over either team in the 4 vs 5 matchup. I doubt Denver wanted to mix it up with a physical Timberwolves squad, but I don't see them losing. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray lead a veteran, battle-tested Nuggets team that has more depth than in recent years. Anthony Edwards will get his, but I don't see Minnesota having enough to advance. We should see several close games, but I trust the Denver infrastructure much more to close it out.

Houston over LA in 5 games - What do we make of this series?  Houston still has not gelled the way many expected.  On paper, they should roll, with Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson leading the way against a Lakers team missing both Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves. Could Doncic return at some point?  Perhaps, but if they are already down 3-1 with OKC looming in round two, I suspect LA ownership keeps him out. I actually feel bad for Lebron James in this one. He shouldn't have to do it alone at this stage. At least we get to see James and Durant match up one more time in the spring. Like with Curry, appreciate these guys while you can.


And finally, we close with rapid fire picks for the rest of the post-season. I'll get more detailed posts up for each new round as we learn the actual playoff matchups.


Round 2:

Detroit over Cleveland in 7 games
Boston over New York in 6 games (with Tatum leading the way with a triple-double in MSG, where he went down with an Achilles injury last year)

OKC over Houston in 5 games
Denver over San Antonio in 7 games (with Joker outbattling Wemby in the best second round playoff series)


Eastern and Western Conference Finals:

Boston over Detroit in 6 games

OKC over Denver in 7 games 
* IF the Spurs hang on to meet Denver, I think they beat OKC in an upset.


NBA Finals:

Boston over OKC in 7 games. I think OKC will have a more grueling battle in the conference finals than Boston.  I expect the Celtics to find just enough offense from their supporting guys to outlast the Thunder in what should be the best NBA finals in years.

* I've now correctly picked the NBA champs each of the last 3 years (Denver, Boston, and OKC). Hoping to keep the streak going.

Enjoy!

Zach

NBA Round 1 Predictions

And then, there were 2. And we all know what that means: Super Bowl time!

Regrettably, that means no more moneyline parlays, a bummer since we’re 3-for-3 in the playoffs to this point, having hit our parlay every week.  But, still a lot of fun stuff to look at on the last Sunday of the season.

I am currently writing this article in-flight from 35,000 feet, so we’re just gonna blast through some props I like, before getting to my game pick at the end. Here we go.


6 picks I like at traditional odds (-110, -120, and so forth):

-Rhamondre Stevenson Over 14.5 rush attempts

-Keyshon Boutte longest reception Over 19.5 yards

-Mack Hollins Over 24.5 receiving yards

-Andres Borregales Over 1.5 field goals (I also like Jason Myers Over 1.5 field goals, but I’m not interested in laying -210 to find out).

-Sam Darnold to throw an interception (available at -125) 

-Seahawks Under 25.5 points (This scares me a little because I know they’re capable of scoring 30+. However, the Pats have allowed 26 points TOTAL in 3 playoff games). Let’s keep it going.


6 picks I like at plus money:

-Jaxon Smith Njigba to hit 8+ receptions at +125. This is a pretty standard number for JSN and I’d rather have him needing one extra catch versus laying -150 to hit 7+ catches. 

-Mack Hollins to hit 3+ receptions at +130. Honestly, this may be worth a flyer on Hollins to get 4+ too (+300 odds if you’re feeling ambitious). But I’ll stick with 3+. 

-Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown at +140

-A.J. Barner anytime touchdown at +225

-DeMario Douglas anytime touchdown at +650 is a long shot too intriguing to pass up here. 

-Over 2.5 players to throw a pass (+175). This hits if we get a trick play on either side or if either quarterback needs to leave the game, even for 15 minutes. Coaches often like to mix it up once or twice in the Super Bowl. I’m looking at you Vrabel.


Official game pick:

Admittedly, I’m generally less inclined to bet on things I’m rooting against. That’s never a particularly fun position to put yourself in. I wouldn’t, for example, discourage anyone from going after Kenneth Walker props, as he figures to play a huge role in the Seahawks attack. But I’m not interested. 

I agree that Seattle deserves to be favored. They’ve played exceptionally well for a very long time in a much more competitive division. But I’m taking the Patriots to cover the reasonable line here. I think this game is likely decided by a field goal in either direction. I like getting New England +4.5 points (-104). They are playing with house money, and I could see them starting the game looser than Seattle. 

Note: I’m expecting some points in Santa Clara, even with two outstanding defenses. So if you want to try a teaser, I’d lean towards Patriots +10.5 and the adjusted Over 39.5 total points. 


Enjoy the game!

Zach

Super Bowl Preview and Picks!

And then, there were four. Let's face it - these were not the four teams that ANYBODY was expecting to reach the Super Bowl going in to the 2025-26 season. Still, for all its decision-making flaws, credit the NFL for establishing true parity. It adds excitement and prevents situations like the Dodgers opening at an unappealing +220 to win the World Series and only +120 to win the National League following the Kyle Tucker signing. Bananas!  

But for now, football season is still here and with massive snow storms expected to pummel much of the country, it's the perfect weekend to put on sweat pants, crack open another beer, and enjoy your Sunday afternoon (so long as power outages don't take out our TVs, in which case heads are gonna roll). 

Time to keep the successful playoff run going, as anyone following picks from the last two articles should be free-rolling now. Feel free to comment anytime with questions or to post your own picks and I'll be sure to respond.  Ok, here we go!


SUNDAY:

The Patriots -4.5 at the Broncos (O/U of 42.5): New England heads to Denver in a matchup between the top two seeds in the AFC. It's never easy to win a road game in the playoffs, but as everyone has heard by now, there's a major variable potentially impacting this one. Denver's starting quarterback, Bo Nix, broke his ankle in overtime against the Bills. Just a brutal to an otherwise excellent season for the second year starter. Drake Maye is now in the driver's seat, facing back up Jarrett Stidham, who was ironically drafted by the Patriots back in 2019. Of more importance is the fact that Stidham hasn't actually started an NFL game since the end of the 2023 season. He will be well-rested at least.

The Pats are never a team to look ahead or take an opponent lightly, and that should be the case this weekend. If their defense continues to dominate like it has the last two weekends, Stidham could be in for a tough afternoon. Of course, Sean Payton may not put the game entirely in his hands either, and will likely opt for a run heavy attack to keep the chains (and the game clock) moving. Denver wants an ugly game, an exhausting battle that will result in a one possession game late in the fourth quarter. However, Maye and the Patriots offense survived against the Chargers, one of the league's best defenses, and then dominated the Texans, puting up 28 points, with Maye responsible for three touchdown passes to DeMario Douglas, Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte, who made the catch of the weekend.

The Denver crowd will be relentless, but Maye, despite a number of mistakes in recent weeks, always seems poised in big moments. I think we see more of that this weekend. Take the Patriots -4.5. 

Bonus Props:
* I like tight end Hunter Henry to go over 3.5 receptions. He's been relatively quiet in the postseason so far, but with Denver focused on getting to Maye early to keep him out of a rhythm, I expect more short passes and dump offs than long bombs this weekend.
* Rhamondre Stevenson props are also worth a look to me. I love the veteran running back to go over a very reasonable 2.5 receptions.


The Rams +2.5 at the Seahawks (O/U of 46.5): It's very hard to go against Seattle in this one, especially coming off a blow out win over another divisional, rival, the 49ers. They've been consistently excellent all season and earned their top seed in the NFC. The Rams, meanwhile, have had to fight for their lives two weeks in a row, narrowly escaping Chicago last weekend in a game they arguably should have lost at the end of regulation and in overtime. I'm still not quite sure why the Bears, playing with house money, opted NOT to go for two to win it in the final 18 seconds of regulation. But they played it safe, the Rams advanced, and here we are.

I would lean heavier on Seattle, except for two major variables. One was the recent loss of running back, Zach Charbonnet, who will miss the rest of the season following an ACL tear. This makes the Seahawks offensive attack a little bit more predictable and I expect the Rams to emphasize stopping Kenneth Walker III early in this one. The second is the fact that Matthew Stafford is a better and more experienced QB than Sam Darnold, who has an up-and-down history. Still, this is the biggest game of his life, and with the Seattle crowd energizing him, we should see Darnold leave it all on the field, despite his current "questionable" status for Sunday. 

It's gonna be a tight game and the NFC Championship could come down to which team has the ball in the closing minutes. If Seattle has the ball late, expect them to burn clock, keep the rushing attack moving forward, and prevent Stafford from having a chance to beat them. And their defense will be hungry to keep the momentum going.  At +3.5, I'd be more inclined to pick the Rams. But at less than a field goal, take the Seahawks.

Bonus Props: 
* I like pretty much all things, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In two earlier games this year against LA, Seattle's star wideout compiled 17 receptions for 201 yards. I don't think the Rams have an answer here. I'm taking JSN over 89.5 yards and over 6.5 receptions. I think it's incredibly likely that he hits at least one of those, if not both.


Bonus Weekend Parlay: Seahawks & Patriots ML (+155 on FanDuel). Yup, we're running it back. This same bet hit last weekend and I again love the idea of eliminating spreads from the equation. And if the Pats represent the AFC, you'll have time to decide whether to hedge your bet, getting points with the Rams in the Sunday night game. 


Good luck this weekend!

Zach

NFL Championship Weekend!!!

Well, we survived a truly wild, Wild Card round (see what I did there?). It was a loaded weekend that began with the heavily favored Rams narrowly escaping Carolina, and closed with an old fashioned smackdown as the Texans defense overwhelmed the Steelers in the fourth quarter on Monday night. In between, we saw the Packers inexplicably blow a 21-3 half-time lead in Chicago (they were up 21-6 entering the fourth), Josh Allen end the Jaguars surprising season with a rushing touchdown to take the lead for good with only a minute remaining, and the Patriots defense smother Justin Herbert all night in Foxborough. As we watched our hometown Pats pull away late, I told my Dad that the Chargers actually have a talented receiving core. But he wouldn’t have known it from that game, as the New England secondary prevented any Charger from exceeding 32 receiving yards. Awesome!

And now, on to the Divisional round. We have four games this weekend and while they should be competitive, there is a hint of collective sadness in the air as fans come to that slow, familiar realization that football season is almost over.  But hey, it’s not all bad news; after all, the ultra-competitive, defense-focused NBA All-Star game is right around the corner…..  

Time to break down the Saturday and Sunday games: Here's how I'd play them:



SATURDAY:

The Bills +1.5 at the Broncos (O/U of 45.5): What do we make of this game?  The public is on Buffalo and it’s not entirely unexpected. Despite being the sixth seed in the AFC, Josh Allen is by far the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs, has come close to the Super Bowl a number of times, and seems able to propel Buffalo to wins even when little else is working. However, Denver is playing at home, where they went 8-1 this year, and the Broncos are the better defensive team by a significant margin. They are also entering the Divisional round with an extra week of rest, while Buffalo drew the short end of the stick, playing in the early game Saturday after playing Sunday the week before. 

I do think Denver is a bit overrated for the top seed in the conference, but I also believe they should beat Buffalo. The Bills do not have a particularly good run defense and the Broncos have an exceptional pass rush. Bo Nix won’t have nearly as much heavy lifting to do as Allen. Last week, in a game that was nearly a coin flip, I wanted Allen over a Jags squad that felt like they’d already peaked. This week, I’ll take the Broncos on the Moneyline at a very reasonable price. If you can’t stomach backing Denver to win though, I also like their team total over 23.5 points.



The 49ers +7 at the Seahawks (O/U of 44.5): Saturday night features the only matchup between division opponents, as well as the biggest point spread of the weekend. I think it’s too big. San Francisco marched into Seattle the first week of the season and won 17-13. Their rematch came at season’s end, with the Seahawks defense stifling the 49ers, only giving up three points in Santa Clara. I picked San Francisco last week to cover against the Eagles and they ended up winning outright. I thought that spread was too big at +4.5, even against the defending Super Bowl champs. Whether you want to credit the 49ers or slam the dysfunctional Eagles is up to you. But I still don’t think Brock Purdy gets enough credit, and in a game like this, I think I’d prefer having him to Sam Darnold at less than 100% (Darnold is now dealing with a new oblique injury).

I don’t count myself among Darnold’s critics though. He’s been great all year, aided by a solid rushing attack and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who by any calculation, is now one of the top five receivers in football. Seattle has done nothing to diminish an exceptional 14-3 regular season record. But at the end of the day, I expect a close game here. Seattle should win at home in an unforgiving environment, but I think San Francisco covers once again. If you can get them +7.5, that’s preferable. My favorite way to play Seattle would be to take them Moneyline in a parlay (scroll down to the bottom for that pick).



SUNDAY: 

The Texans +3 at the Patriots (O/U of 40.5): Last weekend, New England and Houston both shut down offenses that probably had no business making the postseason. Neither allowed a touchdown either, a very impressive feat this time of year. I was somewhat startled by the Patriots pass rush and floored by their secondary, which gave perhaps their best performance of the entire season. But their defense doesn't quite match Houston’s, which is a nightmare for opponents right now. Both teams also come into this game scorching hot. The Texans haven’t lost a game since the start of November, while the Patriots have won 14 of their last 15!  Unbelievable.

In a three-point game though, I would rather have the home team, especially following the news that Houston will be without their best receiver, Nico Collins, who exited last weekend’s game against Pittsburgh with a concussion. Could I see Houston advancing?  Absolutely, but I trust the infrastructure in New England. And this time, Houston won’t be facing an immobile, aging quarterback. Instead, they will be facing Drake Maye, who has exceeded all expectations and become a legitimate MVP candidate. At -3 or less, I’d rather back New England. If you can stomach laying the juice to get them at -2.5, that may be the best play.


The Rams -3.5 at the Bears (O/U of 48.5): Forget the spread in this one; give me the over 48.5. It will be cold but clear on Sunday evening in Chicago and I’m expecting points on both sides. If you’d rather take a team total, I definitely like the Rams to score over 26.5 points in this one. I just don’t see the Chicago defense keeping them out of the end zone. The Rams survived, having to pull a rabbit out of their hat to beat the surprisingly frisky Panthers last weekend. Meanwhile, the Bears are riding high following one of the more improbable seasons in recent NFL history. They pulled off another shocker last week, battling back in the fourth in dramatic fashion, leading thousands of fans to wonder if Matt LaFleur will actually be back to coach the cheese heads next season after some incomprehensible play-calling down the stretch. However, I don’t think the Bears will be that lucky against Sean McVay.

Similar to the Buffalo/Denver game, I am hoping for an outcome that goes against my common sense. I picked Denver, but would rather see the Bills, and particularly Josh Allen, advance. Here, I can’t actually pick against the Rams, but I’m rooting for the Bears and their fanbase, which has dealt with an endless parade of poor quarterbacks for years before choosing Caleb Williams first overall in the 2024 draft. I was impressed with a number of throws he made last week, and this game means so much more to Chicago as a city than it does Los Angeles. Still, if the Bears move on to the NFC championship game, I can’t help but think something really odd happened.




Bonus Weekend Parlay: Seahawks & Patriots ML (+105 Draft Kings). I love being able to eliminate the spreads in this one. I expect both to move on, but if you’re afraid of Houston winning in Foxborough, you can swap out New England for the Rams at slightly less attractive odds (-106).


Good luck this weekend!

Zach


NFL Divisional Round Picks

Hey everybody!  Sincere apologies for being unavailable for a while - I had some personal circumstances to address. I'm hoping to add content far more regularly from this point on. But, for now, it's time to get psyched, because it's the NFL playoffs!  And seriously, what a weird season it took to get here. Here are just a few of the highlights (and lowlights):


* The Jets failed to intercept a single pass all season. I'm not even sure how that's possible.

* The Cowboys gave away Micah Parsons to the Packers for a bucket of chicken. In related news, Dallas missed the playoffs again.

* The Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens ALL missed the postseason. Who had that on their bingo card before the season began?

* Mike McDaniel made it through a seventh complete season with Miami before ownership realized, "Yah, maybe he's not the right guy for this job..."

* The Colts started out 7-1 before somehow finishing 8-9 and relegated to watching the playoffs from home. I feel bad for quarterback Daniel Jones, who tore his Achilles in early December, but Indianapolis had started a major slide long before that happened.

* The Falcons, who never seem to win games they actually should, somehow impacted the playoffs by beating the Saints in week 18, and propelling Carolina into a division champion.

* The Titans, Cardinals, Giants, and Raiders pretty much finished as people thought they would, totaling 16 wins among the four of them. The new John Harbaugh sweepstakes should be interesting. And honestly, the Bengals need to throw their hat into the Harbaugh ring as well. It's time for some major changes in Cincinnati.

* The Patriots, under Mike Vrabel, went 14-3, surpassing even the most optimistic preseason expectations, and displaced the Bills from their position atop the AFC East.

* The NFC West announced itself as, BY FAR, the best division in football. The Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers combined for a nearly 75% winning percentage. Unbelievable!

* The Broncos won the typically competitive AFC West behind a tremendous defense and a young quarterback, Bo Nix, who continues to improve every week.

* And on the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Browns, who were 3-12 entering weeks 17 and 18 and thought that would be the right time of year to start a winning streak. They finished 5-12 and dropped fours spots in the draft. Same old story in Cleveland - Myles Garrett dominated (and broke the all-time sack record), while the offense threw a parade any time they cracked 14 points. Poor Cleveland fans...


But now, let's get to Wild Card Weekend!  With the Broncos and Seahawks earning first round byes, we have six games over the next three days and nights. Here's how I'd play them:


SATURDAY:


The Rams -10.5 at the Panthers (O/U of 46.5): Vegas is so tricky sometimes. They know that offering the Rams -9.5 would be hammered by bettors from coast to coast. 10.5 is a lot more difficult to be confident in. Still, if I'm backing a side, it would be the Rams. I just don't see any way to back the Panthers, although I suppose there's back door cover potential if LA is up 17 with four minutes to go. But proceed with caution. I think I'd prefer the Rams alternate team total (O 23.5 points) in a parlay with another team total I like (perhaps the Bears or Patriots). It's tough for me to see the Panthers keeping the Rams below 27-30 points with Matthew Stafford slinging the ball to his offensive arsenal.


The Packers -1.5 at the Bears (O/U of 44.5): Let's keep this short and sweet. I like the Over 44.5, which seems like a very reasonable figure here. It may rain in Chicago, so don't be surprised to see a healthy mix of the run game on both sides. But I'm not particularly confident in either defense stopping the opponent. I think Green Bay is the better team, but it's very hard to know if this Bear's team is for real or not following a very successful season in which they went 7-2 in one score games. So instead of a side, I'd just bet the over, going up to 46.5 but no higher.


SUNDAY:


Bills -1.5 at the Jaguars (O/U of 51.5): This feels like a stay away, but if forced to pick, I'd just go with the Over 51.5. I think it's worth buying the extra point to get to 50.5, as 51 is a very key number for totals in the NFL. In terms of side, everything inside me is telling me to ride Jacksonville, even though I'd rather have Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen than any other two players on the field. Would I be shocked if Buffalo advanced and this was finally the year Allen got his squad over the hump?  Not at all, but this is a tough first round matchup. I expect this to be a tight and back-and-forth offensive game.


49ers +4.5 (44.5) at the Eagles (O/U of 44.5): Give me the points with San Francisco. I thought this would be closer to a pick 'em or a -2.5 spread in Philly's favor. 4.5 feels disrespectful to the 49ers after going 12-5, even with a few key players questionable for Sunday. The list includes OT Trent Williams (a major loss if he can't go) and TE George Kittle. Weather conditions seem ok on Sunday and all things being equal, I trust Kyle Shanahan more than Nick Sirianni, even with the Super Bowl pedigree. I expect Philadelphia to squeak by, but I'd rather have the 4.5 points in my pocket with the Niners.


Chargers +3.5 at the Patriots (O/U of 46.5): Another sneaky line Vegas... I'd be all over the Pats -2.5. At more than a field goal, that gives me pause. I think the Patriots are a better team, and the LA-based Chargers coming into Foxborough in the middle of January is going to be a tough environment to thrive in. However, Vrabel is often conservative in his decision-making and I suspect points will be at a premium in this one. I don't see him going for it too often on fourth and two if the Pats are within field goal range. I expect New England to advance and if forced to pick, I think it's more likely they win by a touchdown than it is for the Chargers to fly home happy. Save New England for my ML parlay at the bottom.


MONDAY:


Texans -3 at the Steelers (O/U of 46.5): I have people in my life who root hard for the Steelers, so I'm pulling for them. But Aaron Rodgers against THAT defense?  No thanks - Texans -3 feels very reasonable in this spot, as I just don't see the Steelers moving the ball with consistency in this one. The Texans have righted the ship following a slow start and haven't lost a game since November 2nd! Couple that with a slight potential letdown spot from Pittsburgh following a big week 18 victory over their rivals in Baltimore and knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs, and I just can't back them here.



Bonus Weekend Parlay: Rams, Pats, and Texans ML (currently +193 on Draft Kings)
If you're not completely sold on Houston here, you could back the Rams and Patriots both to win at reasonable odds (-128, or $128 to win $100).  I like adding the Texans, not only to secure much more appealing odds nearing +200, but also because it's potentially an easy hedge opportunity. Houston/Pittsburgh is the last game of Wild Card Weekend. If LA and New England take care of business as they are expected to to, it would be easy enough to back the Steelers getting a field goal on Monday night.


Enjoy the weekend!


Zach

NFL Regular Season Thoughts and Wild Card Weekend Picks

Continuing my NFL preview for the upcoming 2025-26 season, we arrive at the AFC North, always among the more competitive divisions in football. This year we should see a legitimate Super Bowl contender, a possible second contender (if they catch a few breaks), a storied franchise transitioning to the next chapter, and an ongoing punchline whose suffering fans deserve better.

Let’s dive in.

1. Baltimore Ravens: Predicted Record 12-5

That is a TOUGH schedule. On paper, the Ravens have the talent to go 14-3. But facing Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City in the opening month of the season could make things a little rocky from the jump. Still, their offense is spectacular, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson nearly won his third MVP award in 2024. Derrick Henry continues to be a beast and as reliable as almost any running back in the NFL. And my son just scored 5 touchdowns with Zay Flowers on me the other day in Madden ’25, for what it’s worth. They also added DeAndre Hopkins to a receiving core that includes ever-reliable tight end, Mark Andrews.

On the flip side, future hall-of-fame kicker Justin Tucker was awful last year (at least compared to his track record). Their secondary, while improved, will still have to prove itself. And John Harbaugh’s squad has a long history of being undisciplined in big moments. Is this finally the year that Baltimore gets over the hump? We know they’ll be good in the regular season; the only question is can they finally get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013.

Recommendation: Baltimore OVER 11.5 wins (but barely)


2. Cincinnati Bengals: Predicted Record 9-8

What do we make of the Bengals? When healthy, they have arguably the top QB/WR duo in the league in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Their LSU connection has only deepened since become NFL stars. If Burrow can stay healthy for a full season, I believe he is a top 5 quarterback. Remember all those Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence debates?  It seems pretty silly now, kind of like how the Beatles and Monkees once fought for the same audience (cue everyone under 40 pulling up Google to look up the Monkees).  

Still, beyond Cincinnati’s headliners, there are questions everywhere. Will their defense be able to stop anybody? They have a new defensive coordinator, so time will tell. Their offense will not be the problem, even with a mediocre rushing attack.  I suspect they find their way into the playoffs as a wild card in the AFC, but just barely. 

Bonus Pick: Ja'Marr Chase O 9.5 TDs (-135 on ESPN Bet). Chase just needs a TD in 10 of 17 games to go over this number, although other books set the line at 10.5. Figuring he registers at least two multi-TD games throughout the season, this seems like a victory lap.

Recommendation: Cincinnati UNDER 9.5 (But a very sharp line – I’m not touching it)


3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Predicted Record 8-9
This one is tough, and bucks a trend I’ve been riding nearly every single year. It is well known that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record during his tenure as head coach of the Steelers. I have loads of confidence in Tomlin; I have less in emerging senior citizen Aaron Rodgers and an offensive line that struggled in 2024. If they can protect Rodgers consistently, that may be the difference between finishing 7-10 and 10-7, although this remains to be seen. In a way, Pittsburgh is the polar opposite of Cincinnati; they are disciplined and their defense will keep them in every game, but whether they can consistently put 17-21 points on the board will determine whether they sniff the postseason. Derrick Harmon, their first round pick out of Oregon, should add more depth to one of the league’s best defenses. 

Still, Tomlin has brought this team to the playoffs regularly despite a revolving parade of below average quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger. Starting strong will be key to Pittsburgh’s hopes this season, as their post-Thanksgiving schedule will include four tough matchups against teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. 

Recommendation: Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins (However, I can’t actually bet against Tomlin – this is the definition of a stay away)


4. Cleveland Browns: Predicted Record 4-13

Is there a group of fans we should feel worse for in all of professional sports than the Browns? I lived outside of Cleveland for a number of years and the passion that this city feels for their football team is genuine. Unfortunately, a parade of idiotic roster and financial decisions have derailed an unusually promising season back in 2023 when they inexplicably went 11-6. The better bet is that this Browns squad will more closely resemble the 2024 team that went 3-14. Head coach Kevin Stefanski will have to navigate uncertainty each week, especially at QB. I suspect it won’t be too long before he tests rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, especially if the season gets away from Cleveland by mid-October.

There is a real chance that the Browns don’t win a single game until an early November matchup against the Jets, and even that is a question mark. Hopefully, the NFL higher ups don’t suddenly decide it would be a wise move to move that one to NBC on Sunday Night. Cleveland’s best offensive weapon when healthy, running back Nick Chubb, signed with the Texans in the off-season. Defensive end and team leader, Myles Garrett, was just caught driving 100 mph in Cleveland, his eighth speeding citation in as many years. Does that matter on the field?  Not really, but it’s another needless distraction for a team that seems to pile them up in the Deshaun Watson era. 

Cleveland fans, I’m rooting for you. But I just don’t see it. 

Recommendation: Cleveland UNDER 4.5 wins (most confident pick in the AFC North)


Bonus Pick: AFC North Exact Finishing Order of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland (+300 on FanDuel).  If you are set on Baltimore winning the division and Cleveland bringing up the rear, this number is actually pretty reasonable. Worst case scenario, you can probably hedge on individual Cincy and Pittsburgh games starting the third week of December.


NEXT UP: AFC South Preview - Stay Tuned.

Thanks for reading!


AFC North Preview and Over/Under Picks

Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!!  We are now less than a month away from the start of the 2025-26 NFL season, which opens with Dallas traveling to Philadelphia to take on the reigning Super Bowl champs. But before we get there, let's delve into predictions for the upcoming season. 

I will be making regular season win total predictions for every team by division over the course of eight articles, starting today with the AFC East. 

1. Buffalo Bills: Predicted Record 12-5

After a tough opening day matchup against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, Buffalo's schedule gets really easy, really fast. They do not play an above-average team again until November 2nd when they host Kansas City. In between, they will see all three division opponents, plus bottom feeders New Orleans and Carolina. The only variable I see derailing Buffalo's regular season would be an unexpected injury to superstar quarterback, Josh Allen. With his size and athleticism, it's hard to see that happening, but should something weird take place, projections would change dramatically with Mitch Trubisky waiting in the wings. The Bills remain very sharp on offense, though they occasionally slip up defensively and are prone to engaging in shoot outs (usually to their advantage). They focused primarily on defensive needs through the draft, which was the right move. Under Sean McDermott, they have been consistently competitive; they just haven't figured out how to beat the Chiefs yet. Something tells me they are getting close. 

Note: Buffalo currently sits at -270 to win the AFC East. The only other team above -150 odds to win their division is Baltimore. There's almost no value in picking the Bills to win the division now, unless you parlay them someone else to bring the bet to plus money.

Recommendation: Buffalo OVER 11.5 wins


2. New England Patriots: Predicted Record 9-8

The much improved Pats have one of the most accommodating schedules in the NFL this year. Other than Buffalo (who they will play twice) and Baltimore, every other game on their schedule seems winnable, with the best of the rest including Cincinnati and Tampa. There are a number of unknowns, including a number of coin flip games. But the first time in years, there is reason to be optimistic in New England, which made probably the biggest coaching improvement in the league, moving on from Jerod Mayo after one year (and that may have been about half a season too long), and replacing him with another former Patriot, Mike Vrabel. Vrabel found success in Tennessee despite an underwhelming roster, and seems capable of drastically improving one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their secondary should be good, and on offense, the additions of Stefon Diggs, plus number four overall pick, offensive tackle Will Campbell from LSU, should combine to make life easier for Drake Maye. Maye showed real flashes as a rookie, and should benefit from the new pieces around him. Don't be surprised to see the second year QB make a major leap into the league's top half of starting quarterbacks.

Note: The Patriots are +175 on FanDuel to finish in second place in the AFC East. It's hard to see them keeping up with Buffalo, but they have enough talent now to finish solidly ahead of Miami and New York. I also like picking Buffalo to finish first and New England to finish second (+165 on ESPN Bet).

Recommendation: New England OVER 8.5 wins


3. Miami Dolphins: Predicted Record 6-11
Miami has the potential to be a dumpster fire this year, although their talented receiving core, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, should continue to cause problems for opposing defenses. But their secondary will have trouble stopping any elite receivers and their running game looks to be moderate at best. Tua Tagovailoa, despite considerable talent, remains unhelped by a weak offensive line, and unfortunately, continues to suffer from concussions, which makes his on-field status a lingering question mark. I have never been a big fan of head coach, Mike McDaniel, who seems to consistently make questionable decisions when the games get tense. I'm actually surprised Miami's regular season win total sits as high as it does. I just can't expect them to be better than .500 this year. Around week 10, I think it's a much safer bet that the Dolphins will be jockeying for draft position versus competing for a playoff spot.

Recommendation: Miami UNDER 8.5 wins


4. New York Jets: Predicted Record 5-12

Ahhhhh, the Jets. What else can we say? When you're the third best professional football team in your home state and one of the other two is the Giants, you know things aren't looking great. New York has a very weak schedule, which is the only factor that has me wavering between 5-12 and 6-11. But there is potential for the Jets to be simply awful. They found a quarterback who shouldn't create any drama in Justin Fields, although his production on the field is inconsistent at best. He's still a bigger running threat than he is throwing the football. Still, Fields may seem like a breath of fresh air after Aaron Rodgers, who is about as high maintenance a star athlete as we have among all four major sports. Head coach Aaron Glenn will be making his debut as head coach and will try to navigate what should be a bumpy season, especially with the unrelenting New York media. The Jets have talent on the roster, with Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Sauce Gardner, among others. But that won't be enough to be a legitimate threat to anyone.


Recommendation: UNDER 5.5 wins (I'm not betting this one, as they could easily sneak over the number against a Bills squad that will likely be resting their starters in week 18.

Bonus Pick: AFC East Exact Finishing Order of Buffalo, New England, Miami, and New York (+390 on FanDuel). I could see the Jets mucking up the bottom of the division though with Miami if things fall apart in South Beach.

NEXT UP: AFC North Preview - Stay Tuned.

Thanks for reading!


AFC East Preview and Over/Under Picks

Recently, my eleven-year-old son and I sat down to watch Little Big League. I was a little concerned too much pf the material would feel dated, given that this kids movie premiered 31 years ago. However, I was pleasantly surprised by how well it holds up, and was even more excited that my son was glued to the screen from start to finish.

There are a number of reasons why Little Big League is successful. First, it knows its audience. This is a perfect fantasy for young boys who play little league and wonder what it would be like to step into a position of authority. It has its share of big name cameos (Ken Griffey Jr. is featured prominently), is generally knowledgeable about baseball, and contains humor throughout. It’s nowhere near as intelligent as Bull Durham and doesn’t have the heart shown throughout A League of their Own, but it holds its own against a parade of mid-90s baseball flicks aimed at young kids, a list that includes the The Sandlot and Rookie of the Year. 

The basic plot is simple enough. Billy Heywood (Luke Edwards) loves baseball and has a close relationship with his grandfather (screen legend Jason Robards), who happens to own the Minnesota Twins. However, after the owner dies about twenty minutes in, it is revealed that he has left the Twins to his only grandson, Billy. The news shocks his friends, his mom (played by Ashley Crow, who ironically in real life is the mother of Cubs rising star, Pete Crow Armstrong), and the Twins crusty manager, played with the appropriate amount of snarl by Dennis Farina. Billy’s decision to fire the manager and step into the role himself anchors the rest of the movie.

As manager, Billy takes the role seriously. There’s a great scene in which John Ashton (Taggart from Beverly Hills Cop) challenges Billy on situations and tendencies, before realizing that the middle school student actually knows more than he does. I wish there had been more legitimate strategy discussed throughout, although the movie gets mileage from a number of silly scenarios, including using the hidden ball trick in a must-win game to reach the post-season. The Twins players take a while to warm up to the idea of taking instruction from a kid, but he eventually wins them over by bonding over water balloon tossing and the now legendary title, Night Nurses from Jersey.  

Look, I never said Little Big League was an Oscar contender.  But it does have an innocent charm that carries it across the finish line. 

The movie offers a plethora of recognizable faces, but no stars (except for the aging Robards). In addition to Farina and Ashton, we get appearances from Jonathan Silverman (best remembered for Weekend at Bernie's) as a goofy pitcher, Corporal Dawson from A Few Good Men, the Dad from Transformers, and Timothy Busfield, who plays Lou Collins, Minnesota's best player and a much nicer guy than he was in a more memorable baseball classic, Field of Dreams. Although how much nicer is debatable – Collins does start dating Billy’s mom around the halfway point, a funny development that messes with the young manager’s confidence.

I’m not sure why certain movies linger in our minds. For me, I’m sure it has to do with seeing Little Big League as a young teen just a few year’s older than our hero. It’s the epitome of a B+ entertainment, although it probably could’ve been an A with more focus on the day-to-day business of baseball. It does earn points for being one of the earlier baseball movies to address that aspect of the sport. I still feel bad when Billy cuts Jerry, his favorite player, and tries to defend the move by explaining that he wouldn't trade his baseball cards for much better players. I also appreciate that the filmmaking team chose the original Rocky approach to end the story. Seeing this Twins squad win the world series would have stretched credibility beyond the point of no return.

At the end of the day, Little Big League is a fun movie for both kids and adults. I would recommend it to anyone with a 9 to 12-year-old sitting at home, waiting anxiously for the MLB playoffs to arrive. 

Note: From time to time, I will be reviewing sports movies, a fun way to combine two of my favorite hobbies. Let me know what you think in the comments, and, if you have specific titles you want to read about, shout them out.  Thanks for reading.


Nostalgia Review of Little Big League (1994)

During a busy NBA summer season, many notable players found new homes via trades and free agency. The Oklahoma City Thunder are still favorites to win next year's title. But before complaining about the inevitability of NBA playoff results, remember that the last team to reach the NBA finals two years in a row was, in fact, the Golden State Warriors back in 2018-2019.  And with the Western Conference littered with the most high-end talent it's had since the mid-2000s, a number of teams see themselves as legitimate contenders.

It is also a virtual guarantee that the Eastern Conference will have a new winner following the devastating Achilles injury to Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers are one of many teams that will look a different, especially after Myles Turner signed with Milwaukee. The Bucks waived another star with a torn Achilles, future hall of famer Damian Lillard, in early July. The Achilles bug also hit Celtics superstar, Jayson Tatum, who went down in round two against the New York Knicks. Tatum's injury led to a number of moves by Boston to lower payroll to get out of the dreaded second apron and to be in a better position to compete with a younger roster once Tatum returns.

Here are, in this writer’s opinion, the two biggest summer winners in each conference.

Note: This article will focus on trades and free agency, but not the draft. The Mavericks should be improved for years with Cooper Flagg falling into their laps. The Spurs may end up benefitting from Victor Wembanyama's injury last season, since they were able to add Dylan Harper. But more on that down the road.


Eastern Conference: 

Most Improved Team - Orlando Magic

Acquiring Desmond Bane from Memphis for KCP, Cole Anthony, and four unprotected first rounders may seem like a lot to give up. But Orlando knows the time to win is now in a completely wide-open conference.  The Grizzlies added a stockpile of draft picks to keep should they go younger with uncertainty about their future with Ja Morant. Or they could package picks and players to lure another veteran to Memphis. 

Meanwhile, Bane feels like a slam dunk for Orlando, which is tough defensively but struggles to find easy buckets on the other end, especially in crunch time. Bane joins rising superstar Paolo Banchero and forward Franz Wagner to complete an impressive starting lineup that should be good enough to win the Southeast Division. Orlando is one of a handful of teams that nobody will want to face in May.

Most Improved Team Runner Up - Atlanta Hawks
Speaking of rising contenders, the Hawks didn’t make the loudest moves of the off-season, but they bolstered their depth tremendously. In early July, Atlanta acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker from Minnesota in a multi-team trade. The versatile wing has shown potential despite fighting for minutes on a Timberwolves team with a ton of guys who need the ball to be effective. Atlanta arguably made their biggest move one day later, when they acquired Kristaps Porzingis from Boston for very little, as the C's were desperate to shed salary. The issue with KP has never been his talent, but rather his health. He was virtually nonexistent in the 2025 playoffs after making invaluable contributions to the C’s title run in 2024. Atlanta, which also signed guard Luke Kennard, has enough talent on the roster now to wait until Porzingis is fully ready to play. For once, the Hawks don’t feel locked into the eighth seed before the season even starts.


Western Conference:
Most Improved Team - Denver Nuggets
I know that Denver didn’t go all-in on a three-for-one trade to pair another proven star with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But they made a series of moves that could pay dividends during next year’s playoff run.  Getting Cam Johnson from Brooklyn and moving away from Michael Porter Jr.’s contract was a major win. I like Porter Jr., but Johnson is a more versatile scorer, and a safer bet to stay on the court. Denver also got some much need relief for Jokic in big man Jonas Valanciunas, who at 6’ 11” and 265 lbs, will be able to hold down the forte while Joker rests for six minutes at a time. To add more depth, Denver signed Tim Hardaway Jr. for scoring punch, and brought back fan favorite Bruce Brown. I expect The Nuggets to be a true challenger again in the Western Conference. 

Most Improved Team Runner Up - Houston Rockets
Houston's inclusion is all about one name: Kevin Durant. Experts identified Houston as a likely landing spot for KD months ago. What surprised folks was how little they had to give up to get one of the best scorers in NBA history. Unwilling to include their top young assets in a potential deal, Houston instead sent Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the number ten overall pick in the 2025 draft, and a parade of virtually useless second rounders for the 36-year-old. I like Green, but he should not be the centerpiece of this deal. Brooks is going to be an instigator who contributes little else to a Phoenix Sun’s squad that had five shooting guards on the roster when the trade took place. I give Devin Booker until about January 7th to demand a trade.

As for Houston, they were was missing a go-to scorer and they got one, as well as a willing passer and underrated defensive player to uphold their team identity. I didn't love Houston giving up on Cam Whitmore, but with the minutes available, this may have been necessary.

In other news, the LA Clippers added forward John Collins in exchange for Norman Powell, who had a breakout season and should've made the all-star team in 2024-25. I was surprised by this trade, which made them younger, but then they started to stockpile aging players whose best years are behind them, including Chris Paul (who will likely retire with his former team), Brook Lopez, and drum roll please..... Bradley Beal.  Are they better?  As always with LAC, it depends on health. 

Their LA roommates, the Lakers, meanwhile, added both Marcus Smart and Deandre Ayton. Smart has a long injury history, but nobody plays harder. Ayton should benefit from the passing skills of Luka Doncic and Lebron James, who will finally have a big target around the rim. LA could contend for the Pacific Division, but their prospects would be better in the Eastern Conference.

The Miami Heat, who traded for the aforementioned Powell, definitely add a presence and third scorer to team with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Still, Miami is very slow and their ceiling is limited. They also traded sharp shooter Duncan Robinson to Detroit. I expect them to be better, but that's a pretty low bar. Miami remains the likeliest bet in the league to finish at exactly .500.

The Celtics made a smart move in shipping Jrue Holiday back to Portland. I have always liked Holiday, but it became clear that the two time champion has slipped a level. He is still a terrific defender, but his offensive contribution was minimal and he missed twenty regular season games. In exchange, the C's acquired scoring guard and expiring contract, Anfernee Simons. Simons, despite his defensive shortcomings, is capable of scoring 25 on any given night and should settle in between Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. He also could find himself on the trading block come February depending on Boston's record at the all-star break. But Simons is an asset at 26-years-old, and someone that didn't cost too much to take a flyer on.

Among other notable moves, the New Orleans Pelicans brought in Jordan Poole for CJ McCollum. I don't know if the Pelicans are the most directionless franchise in the league, but they are close. I actually feel bad for McCollum now.

The San Antonio Spurs brought in former Celtic's center, Luke Kornet, who became a fan favorite with his hustle and ability to thrive in the paint on both ends. He is also a reliable back up for Wemby, who won’t have to see his minutes overextended.

Agree or disagree with the NBA summer assessment?  Feel free to post comments below.

Thanks for reading!

Zach


NBA Summer 2025: A Breakdown of the Biggest Trades and Signings

Hey everybody!

My name is Zach, and I am very excited to be joining the team at Just A Bet Outside. 

Now that we are officially past the MLB all-star break, I'd like to share some baseball futures that I like for the rest of the 2025 season. As always, be sure to search for the best odds you can get, whether you use FanDuel, DraftKings, ESPN Bet, Caesars, or MGM. Or, if you’re an older soul like me, just drive to the nearest casino to place a live ticket. But either way, be sure to shop around for the best prices.

Alright, let’s jump in!

1. Detroit Tigers to win the AL pennant (+290 on DraftKings)
While I don’t love odds below +300 when picking a league winner, there are enough factors in Detroit’s favor to make me think they are a clear favorite in the American League. They currently boast a 10-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central, so there’s almost no danger of them missing the playoffs. They are also a favorite to secure a bye to the division round. Yes, they recently had a six-game losing streak, but that followed a five-game winning streak. They have room for error and Kerry Carpenter should be returning in the coming weeks to a line up that includes Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson (who have combined for 46 home runs) and a team of veterans poised to make a deep run. And Tarik Skubal is, for my money, the best pitcher in baseball and a frontline ace who will pitch at least two games each series. The Tigers haven’t won a world series in over 40 years. I think they’ll at least find themselves in a real position to break the streak.

2. Philadelphia Phillies to win the NL pennant (+500 on ESPN Bet)
These odds feel a tad respectful to veteran team that is a real threat every year. The Dodgers are understandably the favorites, while the Phillies and Cubs share the same odds behind them. I see value with both squads, as Chicago has surpassed expectations and their line up has become scary.  But I’ll go with Philly, with Cy Young co-favorite Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation (more on him below), and a strong line up that features Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and all-star game hero Kyle Schwarber each seeing at least four at-bats a game. The other reason I like Philly at +500?  Should they make the NLDS or NLCS, it’s potentially an easy hedge spot if you want to pick their opponent (and likely an underdog) at plus odds. Or if you want to get really creative, take their competition at +1.5 games and there is a possibility you win both bets.

3. Cal Raleigh to win AL MVP (+370 on DraftKings) 
I know, I know, Aaron Judge is the heavy favorite for a reason. But there are a few things potentially working against the future hall of famer. He has won two of the last four AL MVP awards, including 2024. Voter fatigue tends to set in after so much success. Further, the Yankees are not having the kind of dominant season so far that many expected. Their offense has been wildly inconsistent and manager Aaron Boone consistently makes odd decisions that tend to impact the loss column. New York has a huge series this week against the AL East leading Blue Jays. If New York drops further in the standings and Seattle makes the playoffs (or even challenges Houston for the AL West), there may be just enough holes in the Judge argument for Raleigh to snag this award. It’s also much more fun to root for Raleigh, who is having a phenomenal year for the Mariners. 38 home runs at the all-star break!  And from a catcher?  Sign me up at +370.  However, if you can’t quite stomach going against Judge for MVP, I also like Raleigh’s home runs prop, currently sitting at 54.5 (+105 on ESPN Bet).

Side Note: as a New Englander, nothing would bring me more joy than seeing New York drop to third in the division behind the Red Sox, who despite moving on from Rafael Devers in exchange for a wildly insufficient package from the Giants, have been winning a number of games as of late, and battling consistently with an improving pitching staff. 

4. Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young (-115 on DraftKings)
Wheeler has been awesome this year, leading the league in strikeouts and quality starts. His main competition is Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes, who despite his best efforts, gets limited run support from a Pirates squad that never threatens to move up in the standings. Wheeler, 35, has also never won the award before. Skenes, over a decade younger, will have many cracks at this, and I suspect voters will choose to reward the Philly ace in what may be his last shot.

5. Eugenio Suarez to lead MLB in home runs (+1900 on FanDuel)
These odds are insane for a guy who is only two home runs behind the league leader and is seemingly heating up, with five home runs in his last three games. The biggest challenge with Suarez is that with Arizona failing to rise beyond fourth place in the NL West, some trades seem inevitable. Even still, I’m not ignoring +1900 odds. I believe he will hit well for a contender should he get traded, and with 36 home runs, he sits behind only Raleigh and Judge. As an aside, I’ve hit more home runs props in 2025 on Suarez than with any other player in MLB. The guy is a beast!

One final note - remember that when it comes to mid-season team wins bets, Vegas adjusts the lines accordingly, and usually not in the bettor’s favor. Often the totals seem good to be true. At this point when it comes to over/unders, I’d recommend waiting for NFL season in early September. I’ll be making NFL future picks in August. 

Good luck!
Zach


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